Neytiri (from Avatar) vs. Anthony Mackie (from The Hurt Locker). Who would you rather spend two hours with?

As an occasional mainstream moviegoer, I find the Oscars increasingly irrelevant in shaping my multiplex digressions. The field is predictable; the ceremony is excruciating. Nevertheless, I do think it’s compelling that Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker and James Cameron’s Avatar both lead with nine nominations, because the movies come from opposite ends of the filmmaking spectrum. While the gossipmongers are twittering over the fact that the pair used to be married, I think these two films going head to head could be one indicator of the types of films the big studios will consider worthy investments in the future. Let’s compare the two:

AVATAR

• Biggest budget in film history (undisclosed amount; estimated at $200 to $500 million. That’s one hell of a range, J.C.)
• Highest Grossing B.O. ever (but not ticket sales! I find this extremely heartening)
• CGI spectacle with different tiers of engagement: 2D, 3D, IMAX, etc.
• Utopian, apolitical sci-fi storyline set in the future
• Made for merchandising (Teenage boys who read my blog, take note of this and this)

THE HURT LOCKER

• $15 million dollar budget, independently financed and produced
• Respectable B.O. (about $16 million worldwide to date)
• Character-driven, highly calibrated drama
• Politically relevant, contemporary storyline about the Iraq War (a subject that has not fared well in movie theaters)
• Little to no merchandising potential (although I would totally buy an Anthony Mackie action figure)

There’s no question as to which of these films will make more money. But hopefully Hurt Locker’s coup will convince the studios that low-budget films (in the $10 to $20 million dollar range) are worth greenlighting again, and can distinguish themselves in an overcrowded marketplace. Thanks to the sheer number of nominations, The Hurt Locker stands to do well in the aftermarket, and DVD / VOD sales will be strong. Not every film can be Avatar; the studios simply can’t afford to outlay prodigious amounts of capital for each individual production. If anything, the success of The Hurt Locker proves once again that sure-fire blockbusters with commensurately-escalating budgets aren’t the only game in town.